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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

It appears that the weakening process has already begun. The ring
of intense convection surrounding the eye has warmed up and
consequently, Dvorak numbers have continued to fall. Based on an
average of the latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial
intensity has been adjusted down to 125 kt in this advisory.
Barbara's circulation is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a
gradual weakening trend should prevail, although some minor
fluctuations in intensity are possible today.  Faster weakening
is anticipated once the shear increases significantly in about 2
days. In fact, Barbara could lose its deep convection, and thus
become post tropical, around the time it is forecast to cross 140W
into the central Pacific basin.  This is indicated by most of the
intensity guidance.

Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9
kt. The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the
subtropical high that has been steering the cyclone, and this flow
pattern should force Barbara to move slowly toward the northwest
during the next 2 days or so. After that time, a new ridge is
forecast to re-build north of the cyclone, resulting in a more
westerly track. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a
weak shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered by the low-level
trade winds. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous
one, and it continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope
and basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 13.9N 126.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 14.6N 128.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 15.7N 129.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 16.9N 131.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 19.0N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  08/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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