ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019 Satellite images indicate that Barbara has continued to gradually weaken. The eye is not as distinct as it has been during the past 24 hours, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed. Dvorak numbers have continued to fall, and based on an average of the latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to 120 kt in this advisory. Barbara's circulation is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a gradual weakening trend should prevail. Faster weakening is anticipated once the shear increases significantly in about 2 days. In fact, Barbara could lose its deep convection, and thus become post-tropical, around the time it is forecast to cross 140W into the central Pacific basin. This is indicated by most of the intensity guidance. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this flow pattern should steer Barbara on a northwest track during the next 2 days or so. After that time, a new ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone, resulting in a turn back toward the west. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a weak and shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered westward by the low-level trade winds by Saturday. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one, and it continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.3N 127.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN