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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Satellite images indicate that Barbara continues to gradually
weaken.  Convection in the eyewall is becoming less intense, with
eye temperatures slowly falling.  A consensus of the latest
satellite estimates suggests 100 kt as the initial wind speed.
The hurricane is entering an environment that will likely promote
rapid weakening during the next couple of days.  Barbara is forecast
to traverse sub-26C waters and encounter increasing southwesterly
shear, which would help to mix in drier air from the mid-levels of
the atmosphere.  Thus, the cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone around
the time it enters the Central Pacific basin.  The new NHC
prediction is similar to the previous one and is a bit lower than
the model consensus.

Barbara has turned northwestward recently, and is moving about
310/10 kt. This general path is forecast until tomorrow when a
mid-level ridge builds to north of the cyclone, causing a
west-northwestward motion.  As Barbara weakens, it should
turn westward on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow.  Model
guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and no
significant changes were required to the previous forecast.  All of
the model dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands,
although the remnants could move across that area in about 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 16.0N 130.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 18.8N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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