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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

There are no changes of significance to report on the depression or
its official forecast. The system is still strongly sheared from
the east, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support
maintaining the cyclone's intensity at 30 kt. First-light visible
imagery revealed that the depression's center is still exposed to
the northeast of a small area of deep convection.  All of the
global and hurricane dynamical models indicate that the system will
begin to weaken later today and could dissipate as early as late
Sunday or early Monday due to the combination of a dry near-storm
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds.  There is no change
to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt.  The cyclone will likely
turn westward as it weakens and loses its deep convection later
today or tonight, and then continue on a westward heading until it
dissipates in a couple of days. The NHC forecast continues to
closely follow the track model consensus, with a little extra weight
given to the GFS model which has performed well for the depression
so far.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 17.3N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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