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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

The depression consists of a small low-level swirl, exposed to the
east of a shrinking area of convection. The initial winds have been
maintained at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB. For the moment, the system appears to be on its way to
becoming a remnant low with convection gradually decreasing, just as
most of the dynamical models predicted during the last day or so.
There has been no important change in the guidance, and the cyclone
is still forecast to gradually weaken during the next couple of days
and could become a remnant low as early as tomorrow afternoon. The
remnant low could then last for another day or so after that, but
should open into a trough and dissipate early next week.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, but is
forecast to turn toward the west tonight as it weakens and loses its
convection. While there is still some spread in the models,
especially regarding how far westward the remnant low will make it
before it dissipates, they all generally agree on this forecast. The
NHC forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is
largely unchanged from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 17.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.1N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0600Z 18.4N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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