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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has
not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that
northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to
the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity
estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression.

The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is
in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the
next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak
mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and
turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level
flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous
official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus.

Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is
preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better
established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range
for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any
significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other
environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification
during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a
minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable
atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72
hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with
dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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