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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep
convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm.
Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls
encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of
the convection.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for
this advisory.

The initial motion is 330/07.  A mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest
through much of tonight.  As the system weakens, it will become
steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting
in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday.
Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has
shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast
track has also been adjusted a little in that direction.

Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast
to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend
to begin by tonight.  In addition, the current shear is not expected
to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that
time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable
environment.  These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep
convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night.  The latest
forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

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