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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has changed little during the last several hours.  The storm
remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the
southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35
kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial
intensity is held at that value.

Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed
for even cooler waters.  In addition, a field of stratocumulus
clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the
system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass.  These conditions
should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become
a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in
a day or so.  The global models show the remnant low opening up into
a trough in a few days or less.  The NHC intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning
to the left.  A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the
next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves
within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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