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Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to
decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a
broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this
advisory.  Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later
today, and into a dry and more stable airmass.  This should
result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low within 24 hours.

It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but
the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt.  There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue
moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes
under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous
advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the
updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance
envelope and close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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