ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Hurricane Erick, which is the first tropical cyclone to enter the central Pacific during the 2019 Hurricane Season, has been showing signs of an eye trying to emerge in conventional infrared satellite imagery this evening. Microwave images also continue to show evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The latest intensity estimates from the satellite agencies are 4.0(65 kt) from SAB, 4.5(77 kt) from HFO, and 5.0(90 kt) from JTWC. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 3.9(63 kt). For this advisory, we are intensifying Erick slightly to 70 kt as a compromise, since the eye has not become clearly defined yet. The hurricane's short-term motion appears to be slightly slower than 6 hours ago, but the longer-term motion is 280/15 kt for this advisory. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to weaken Tuesday, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion toward the west-northwest. The track guidance continues to have some spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean remain faster than the rest of the models. For this advisory, we have kept the track forecast similar to the previous package. We continue to believe that the environment around Erick will remain conducive for additional intensification during the next 36-48 hours. The latest forecast again indicates Erick may attain major hurricane status during the next couple of days. The circulation around a broad upper-level trough in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands will likely cause a significant increase in shear as Erick continues to move toward the west-northwest beyond 48 hours. Therefore, this advisory continues to show rapid weakening during the 2 to 3 day time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 13.1N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN