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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 01 2019
 
Deep convection remains well to the northeast of the low level 
circulation center (LLCC) of Erick this evening due to persistent
strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 37 knots as
depicted by the latest UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analysis. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensities estimates from the
satellite agencies came in at 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO/SAB and
4.0 (65 knots) from JTWC, while the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
from UW-CIMSS was 3.7 (59 knots). These estimates in combination
with the degradation in satellite appearance warrants lowering the
initial intensity of Erick to 55 knots with this advisory. Although
the center is difficult to locate in conventional infrared satellite
imagery, shortwave infrared imagery was useful in determining
the center location. The motion has been set at 290/11 knots.

Erick is forecast to track west-northwestward over the next couple
days around the southwestern periphery of a large subtropical 
ridge. Beyond 48 hours, a turn toward the northwest is expected
at a slower forward speed as the tropical cyclone begins to interact
with a digging upper level trough in the vicinity of 165W. The LLCC
may deviate slightly north of the forecast track at times due to
bursts of deep convection resulting from the system passing over
increasingly favorable sea surface temperatures and higher ocean
heat content values. It should be noted however, that conditions
remain extremely hostile, and intensification is not expected. The
latest forecast track is very close to the previous official
forecast and is closely aligned with the latest TVCN and HCCA
track consensus guidance.

Strong vertical wind shear will continue to hammer Erick over the 
next several days, with rapid weakening expected to continue
tonight, followed by slow weakening thereafter. Erick is expected
to become a tropical depression by Sunday, a post-tropical remnant
low by Monday and dissipate into a trough by Tuesday.  The
intensity forecast was left virtually unchanged, and is roughly a
blend of the latest statistical and dynamical intensity consensus
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 16.4N 155.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.8N 157.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.4N 159.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.3N 161.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.1N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 22.0N 167.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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