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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019
 
Erick continues to weaken under the influence of relentless
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. The low-level
center remains periodically exposed, and deep convection continues
to pulse, mainly within the northeast quadrant. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 35 kt from SAB to 45 kt out of JTWC
and HFO, while CIMSS ADT is yielding an estimate of 35 kt. Given the
highly degraded satellite presentation, an average of the estimates
supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt.

Flare ups of deep convection near the center of Erick have been
causing slight variations in short term motion, with an average
longer term motion of 280/11 kt. Erick will be steered toward the
west-northwest by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north during the
next few days, keeping the tropical cyclone well south of the main
Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. A loss in forward speed and a
turn toward the west is due by Monday as the ridge to the north
weakens. The track forecast was nudged south slightly from the prior
advisory and lies near TVCN towards the middle of the guidance
envelope. 

Weakening will continue, as an upper-level trough parked north of
Erick maintains strong vertical wind shear over the next several
days. The intensity forecast is slightly more aggressive in
weakening Erick compared to the prior advisory, bringing the
cyclone to a tropical depression late Saturday and weakening the
system to a remnant low on Sunday. The current forecast is close to
HCCA and IVCN and weakens Erick at a slower rate than the
statistical guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 16.6N 158.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.1N 160.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.9N 162.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.9N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.8N 165.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 20.5N 167.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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