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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

First-light visible satellite images have revealed that the area of
low pressure located southwest of the coast of Mexico has developed
a well-defined center of circulation.  The convective pattern has
also increased in organization, with a pronounced band wrapping from
the west to north of the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates are
T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T1.5/25 kt from TAFB, and advisories are
being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is moving quickly along the southern
periphery of mid-level ridging that is centered along the U.S/Mexico
border, and its initial motion estimate is 285/18 kt.  A weakness in
the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula should allow the
cyclone to slow down some after 24 hours, but the trajectory is
expected to be either westward or west-northwestward for the entire
5-day forecast period.  There is very little spread among the track
models, and this initial NHC forecast has generally been placed
between the various multi-model consensus models and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA).

The convective pattern and upper-level cloud motions suggest that
there's a little bit of shear over the system from the
east-northeast, but that shear should abate over the next 24 hours.
The cyclone will also be over deep warm water, with sea surface
temperatures remaining above 27 degrees Celsius for the entire
forecast period.  As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated,
and the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN intensity
consensus and close to the HCCA guidance for much of the forecast
period.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and it is likely to become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 11.2N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 11.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 12.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 12.1N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 12.0N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 12.5N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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