ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019 Recent long- and short- wave infrared satellite images show that tropical storm Flossie is a little more symmetric than it was last night. The center of the tropical storm appears to be more embedded within its central dense overcast. That said, the Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have not changed since 6 hours ago. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning supported max winds of about 60 kt, and this is agrees with the Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains at that value. The track forecast has not been significantly changed from the previous advisory. Flossie continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 15 kt, and a subtropical ridge to the north should keep Flossie on this general heading for another 2 or 3 days. Most of the models suggest that Flossie will slow down slightly and then turn northwestward early next week, ahead of an upper-level trough located northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. By day 4, a turn toward the north is forecast by all of the typically reliable global models. The NHC forecast follows suit, showing recurvature east of Hawaii, and is very close to the HCCA and TVCE models at all forecast hours. All of the intensity guidance forecasts that Flossie will gradually weaken over the next 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving over marginal sea surface temperatures near 26 deg C, and moderate shear of around 20 kt should continue to affect the cyclone through early next week. By 72 h, a sharp increase in westerly shear should occur as Flossie approaches the aforementioned upper-level trough, and additional weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the low-spread intensity guidance envelope. On the forecast track, Flossie will move into the Central Pacific basin later today, at which point the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will assume forecast responsibilities. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 137.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 140.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 142.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 145.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.9N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 24.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 29.0N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos NNNN