ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122019
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 05 2019
 
TD 12E is still very disorganized late this morning with multiple 
bursts of seemingly random convection exhibiting little if any 
persistent banding. We have relocated TD 12E a little farther west 
to a presumed new low-level circulation center based on the GOES-
17 one-minute visible imagery. However, given the disorganization, 
confidence in this initial position remains quite low, and it's 
possible a new center may be in the process of developing farther 
south once again. Intensity estimates ranged from 1.5 from JTWC and 
PHFO, to 2.0 from SAB. Without many definitive signs of 
organization, we will maintain an intensity of 25 kt for this 
advisory. 

The difficulty in finding the initial position makes it difficult
to describe a representative initial motion as well. The best
estimate is 270/6. The overall forecast philosophy remains
unchanged, with 12E being steered in the trade wind flow by a weak
subtropical ridge to its north. This ridge is expected to
strengthen and deepen north of the main Hawaiian Islands after 48
hours, keeping the system on a westward track well south of Hawaii.
The GFS has been trending closer to the consensus guidance and
ECMWF, leading to more confidence in the track. Owing to the change
in initial position, the latest forecast track has been nudged a
little farther north and west, but is nearly on top of the now
rather tightly-packed consensus guidance including the TVCN.

TD 12E may continue to struggle awhile longer, embedded in a
relatively dry environment and having a disorganized low-level
structure. The shear is relatively weak, however, and the sea
surface temperatures are warm enough to allow for gradual
strengthening for the next several days, which is expected to begin
once the low level organization finally improves. Toward days 4 and
5, shear is expected to increase near the cyclone which is 
expected to slow or possibly halt the intensification trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 12.2N 144.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 12.2N 145.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 12.3N 147.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 12.5N 148.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 12.7N 151.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 14.1N 156.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 16.2N 163.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 17.9N 170.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
NNNN