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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up.
Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast
with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest
subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial
intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little
generous based on a recent scatterometer pass.

Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate
that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as
the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest.
This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of
days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west
to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast
period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing
another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering
currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion
for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted
only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the
consensus aids.

The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later
today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could
allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air
surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest,
and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening
at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This
re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although
the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast
intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus
aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is
expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical
storm by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

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