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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near
the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support
winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity.  Kiko
has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it
moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind
shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and
Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt.  There has been no change to
the track forecast reasoning for this advisory.  Kiko should
continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then
northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off
to the northwest of the cyclone.   After Kiko weakens to a remnant
low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by
the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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