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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has become quite disorganized tonight.  Geostationary
satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center
is now located well to the east of the main area of deep
convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of
east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T
and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current
appearance.

Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving
into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs.  Therefore, steady
weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one.  This
prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it
will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over
very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula.

The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt.
The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward
to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow.
The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were
made to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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