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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on
the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data.
Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since
yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already
peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will
increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening.
Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant
near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the
Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or
its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to
upper level trough just west of the peninsula.

Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at
8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow
ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow
pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it
becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move
toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later
portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the
cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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