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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 53.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 53.2 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later
today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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