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BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 56.5 West.  Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some
weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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