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Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 62.5 West.  Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight and pass well north of Puerto Rico
on Saturday.  Jerry will then pass well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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