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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico Thursday or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Further slow strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on
Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and
then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late
Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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