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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of western and northwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of Narda.  Watches or warnings may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 103.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and
southwestern coasts of Mexico tonight, then emerge over the
Pacific early Monday.  It is then forecast to move near or just
offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some additional weakening is expected while the
center is over land.  Slow strengthening is forecast once the center
moves back over the Pacific.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night.  Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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