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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system has moved very little
during the past few hours, but it should begin to move toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) later today or tonight. This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days,
bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday.  However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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