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Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected this evening, but
Narda should begin to weaken late tonight and Tuesday as more of
the circulation intersects with land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently
measured by a private weather observing site in Paralelo Treinta y
Ocho, Mexico, and a gust to 35 mph (56 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Culiacan, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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