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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...MORE RAIN TO COME...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 94.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.4 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today.  On this track, the disturbance is expected
to move inland over southeastern Mexico later today within the watch
area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance has some chance of becoming a tropical storm before
moving inland later today. Thereafter, weakening is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 20 inches
along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Jalisco.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across El Salvador and
southern Guatemala.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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