* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012019 06/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 33 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 4 3 9 12 19 25 31 36 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 102 104 142 199 173 196 197 213 226 239 232 226 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.3 28.0 26.1 25.8 24.4 23.2 22.8 21.6 19.6 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 155 149 146 125 122 107 95 90 78 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 63 60 57 54 51 48 42 41 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 39 27 17 -4 -18 -25 -20 -15 -21 -30 -24 -36 -21 200 MB DIV 29 30 54 44 42 18 35 21 11 -1 18 9 27 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -9 -3 -2 8 15 12 8 11 10 2 -14 LAND (KM) 406 440 471 545 643 708 783 830 847 794 705 603 437 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.1 18.0 19.1 20.6 22.5 24.6 26.8 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.2 107.4 108.8 110.2 112.8 115.4 117.5 119.2 120.3 121.1 121.0 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 12 12 11 11 11 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 12 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 7. -2. -12. -20. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 105.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ONE 06/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 25.6% 15.6% 4.0% 4.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 16.2% 12.7% 1.3% 1.5% 6.5% 6.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ONE 06/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##