* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012019 06/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 42 40 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 42 40 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 34 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 7 8 9 15 15 15 23 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 1 5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 149 199 173 183 209 195 209 227 266 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.0 27.2 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 147 138 134 136 120 115 110 106 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 61 59 60 57 52 44 37 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 1 -12 -23 -24 -25 -16 -17 -8 -13 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 46 37 32 18 14 21 3 -18 -7 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 1 4 13 13 9 10 10 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 519 598 698 786 804 854 942 996 1076 1190 1288 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 109.0 110.4 111.7 112.9 115.1 117.1 118.7 120.3 122.0 123.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 5. -4. -13. -22. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 26.8% 24.0% 18.0% 0.0% 20.4% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 22.1% 18.4% 3.0% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 16.4% 14.2% 7.0% 2.1% 6.9% 6.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##