* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 46 47 47 43 35 27 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 46 47 47 43 35 27 21 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 38 33 28 23 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 7 6 7 7 9 13 16 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 0 3 1 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 106 108 137 174 169 206 187 224 258 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.7 28.0 26.9 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 141 142 145 133 130 123 116 113 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 64 63 62 60 53 42 37 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -5 -12 -16 -27 -23 -21 -19 -23 -21 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 38 21 17 20 14 13 -14 -19 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 1 1 4 11 8 9 9 16 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 641 730 831 893 915 963 1059 1121 1205 1322 1435 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.6 115.7 117.6 119.4 121.0 122.7 124.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 11 12 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 8. 0. -8. -14. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 108.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 27.0% 25.1% 19.0% 12.3% 21.6% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 32.1% 22.4% 5.3% 7.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 20.0% 15.9% 8.1% 6.7% 7.6% 6.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##