* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 55 58 55 48 39 33 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 52 55 58 55 48 39 33 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 53 50 43 36 31 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 5 2 5 5 7 7 11 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 1 2 5 3 4 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 93 110 155 176 194 240 211 228 248 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.1 27.1 26.0 25.5 25.7 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 149 149 149 135 135 123 117 119 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 64 63 59 49 40 37 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 -5 -9 -9 -1 -13 -3 -12 -17 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 51 29 20 24 30 15 0 -20 -13 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 1 6 7 6 9 11 16 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 862 970 993 1002 1068 1126 1172 1328 1410 1448 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.0 16.8 17.1 17.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.1 112.3 113.4 114.4 116.5 118.2 119.9 121.8 123.1 124.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 34 33 16 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -13. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 15. 8. -1. -7. -13. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.80 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 32.2% 28.3% 21.8% 14.2% 24.7% 23.3% 9.2% Logistic: 6.3% 24.8% 15.4% 5.4% 4.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 20.1% 14.8% 9.2% 6.1% 9.0% 7.9% 3.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 13.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##