* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 53 49 43 35 26 24 24 24 26 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 53 49 43 35 26 24 24 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 52 52 48 40 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 6 13 10 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 3 1 2 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 123 143 197 197 236 231 238 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 27.8 26.3 25.5 24.9 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 148 143 127 118 111 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 64 63 62 54 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 12 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -9 -11 -6 -13 -9 -9 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 32 23 28 31 19 7 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 9 9 9 14 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 905 954 951 962 1013 1056 1137 1235 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.3 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.9 113.0 114.1 115.1 117.2 119.2 120.8 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 18 23 14 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. -2. -10. -19. -21. -21. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 110.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.83 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 35.3% 29.3% 22.4% 14.5% 23.8% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 26.5% 19.6% 7.9% 4.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 20.9% 16.4% 10.1% 6.4% 8.3% 7.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##