* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 51 43 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 51 43 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 53 53 52 49 41 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 11 16 15 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 1 2 8 3 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 212 238 203 228 248 242 241 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.0 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.0 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 143 145 128 119 109 102 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 66 65 60 52 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -15 -15 -16 -19 -22 -32 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 40 40 25 19 26 13 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 9 10 11 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 888 880 890 918 979 1013 1102 1180 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.3 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.5 114.7 115.8 117.9 119.6 121.2 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -16. -26. -35. -37. -38. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 111.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 29.1% 27.6% 21.4% 13.6% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 11.6% 9.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 13.6% 12.2% 8.0% 5.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##