* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 50 45 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 50 45 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 55 52 48 42 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 17 19 19 22 26 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 7 8 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 228 231 245 241 235 238 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 122 114 105 96 97 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 64 63 62 51 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -19 -25 -20 -24 -31 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 41 33 28 31 14 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 16 14 20 20 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 835 819 828 840 842 916 998 1088 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.2 20.8 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.7 115.8 116.8 117.8 119.7 121.2 122.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -5. -10. -22. -34. -44. -50. -54. -57. -58. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 113.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##