* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 65 60 53 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 65 60 53 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 67 64 57 50 36 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 21 19 19 26 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 8 9 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 231 235 237 233 240 227 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.6 24.8 24.0 23.5 23.5 23.7 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 120 112 103 97 96 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 56 47 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 13 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -15 -21 -15 -14 -26 -31 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 33 31 34 40 22 -1 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 15 16 23 23 14 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 825 828 828 840 871 963 1012 1137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.9 116.9 118.0 119.0 120.7 121.9 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -5. -12. -28. -41. -54. -62. -67. -70. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 114.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##