* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 255 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 84 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -31 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 941 981 1008 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.8 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.9 121.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -9. -17. -25. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -23. -31. -39. -46. -53. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.3 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##