* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP022019 06/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 58 72 85 93 92 89 86 78 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 58 72 85 93 92 89 86 78 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 44 53 67 82 87 82 75 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 6 9 6 4 3 6 4 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 5 0 -4 -8 -6 -3 0 1 8 5 SHEAR DIR 308 298 294 308 329 66 55 44 357 238 270 247 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 158 156 153 152 154 146 140 138 137 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 71 73 71 67 60 58 58 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 16 17 20 25 29 31 31 31 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 12 10 5 16 23 32 36 50 46 48 44 200 MB DIV 128 154 161 121 108 116 120 184 127 101 55 51 7 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -12 -13 -11 -5 -3 -4 -3 2 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1099 1154 1228 1328 1394 1497 1620 1740 1809 1888 1958 2029 2103 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 53 30 22 20 18 20 24 55 11 7 6 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 20. 20. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 37. 50. 58. 57. 54. 51. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 109.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 INVEST 06/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 33.7% 26.8% 20.5% 13.0% 29.6% 43.4% 45.8% Logistic: 7.4% 38.5% 24.4% 15.2% 2.2% 17.1% 15.0% 9.5% Bayesian: 4.4% 20.6% 11.8% 2.6% 0.2% 6.4% 7.2% 3.6% Consensus: 8.8% 30.9% 21.0% 12.8% 5.1% 17.7% 21.9% 19.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 14.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 INVEST 06/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##