* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 06/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 57 65 81 92 98 99 93 85 75 65 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 57 65 81 92 98 99 93 85 75 65 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 52 61 76 94 103 98 86 72 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 6 13 13 4 4 7 10 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 0 0 -5 -8 -3 -1 1 6 9 3 SHEAR DIR 307 307 317 344 9 72 51 43 274 247 249 246 246 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.6 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 156 155 151 155 150 142 138 135 128 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 69 71 68 62 55 50 47 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 24 27 28 32 32 30 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 9 8 8 27 38 46 64 74 63 60 53 200 MB DIV 142 162 129 98 92 125 134 120 90 76 54 23 6 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -13 -13 -9 -5 -6 -7 0 4 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1183 1267 1368 1425 1489 1615 1732 1826 1919 2000 2043 2122 2239 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.3 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.7 120.2 122.4 124.5 126.4 128.0 129.5 131.0 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 20 17 20 24 57 15 7 7 8 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 20. 20. 18. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 25. 41. 52. 58. 59. 53. 45. 35. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.7 111.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 06/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.56 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 50.2% 32.7% 23.0% 14.5% 39.6% 50.0% 44.2% Logistic: 10.6% 38.0% 23.7% 15.5% 2.2% 8.1% 4.3% 6.2% Bayesian: 14.1% 47.8% 50.8% 26.7% 1.0% 2.7% 1.6% 0.1% Consensus: 13.9% 45.3% 35.7% 21.7% 5.9% 16.8% 18.6% 16.8% DTOPS: 6.0% 28.0% 18.0% 13.0% 6.0% 35.0% 25.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 06/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##