* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 81 90 103 110 111 101 91 81 69 57 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 81 90 103 110 111 101 91 81 69 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 76 83 98 110 114 108 96 82 67 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 9 14 14 6 3 5 7 13 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 4 9 7 15 SHEAR DIR 332 348 10 67 68 50 51 325 242 239 246 237 231 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.1 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 155 153 153 155 151 143 141 137 125 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 72 68 64 58 54 49 44 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 25 27 30 31 33 31 31 30 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 7 12 20 27 48 56 71 64 69 60 64 200 MB DIV 110 119 109 124 120 113 116 74 69 46 27 1 19 700-850 TADV -16 -12 -9 -6 -6 -5 -5 -2 2 7 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1419 1457 1510 1577 1653 1760 1857 1941 2023 2090 2197 2190 1989 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.2 15.0 16.0 16.6 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.5 117.9 119.2 120.5 122.7 124.7 126.5 128.0 129.8 132.1 134.3 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 22 28 31 64 16 8 8 8 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 12. 12. 10. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -11. -12. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 26. 35. 48. 55. 56. 46. 36. 26. 14. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.1 115.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.79 11.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 13.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 11.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 65% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 82.2% 67.9% 54.0% 43.7% 64.5% 54.9% 24.9% Logistic: 53.3% 75.4% 60.9% 54.0% 31.8% 14.1% 2.9% 3.6% Bayesian: 72.2% 59.3% 66.8% 51.9% 22.9% 27.1% 8.7% 0.0% Consensus: 56.2% 72.3% 65.2% 53.3% 32.8% 35.2% 22.2% 9.5% DTOPS: 27.0% 67.0% 54.0% 45.0% 36.0% 56.0% 30.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##