* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 69 78 89 98 112 117 113 102 90 75 63 51 V (KT) LAND 60 69 78 89 98 112 117 113 102 90 75 63 51 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 76 83 91 107 117 113 104 91 75 61 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 13 14 9 6 2 4 5 13 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 1 7 11 13 12 SHEAR DIR 351 19 54 57 45 53 14 271 247 261 240 241 251 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.6 26.2 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 152 156 151 143 140 138 130 126 126 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 73 71 70 62 58 53 50 47 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 28 31 32 33 34 34 32 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 13 15 19 23 33 41 52 62 51 42 48 47 200 MB DIV 110 116 127 105 107 167 83 93 64 72 15 3 -11 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -8 -9 -8 -4 -4 0 3 4 2 8 2 LAND (KM) 1467 1525 1595 1661 1730 1816 1909 1988 2068 2138 2233 2085 1842 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.0 119.4 120.6 121.8 123.9 125.8 127.5 129.4 131.2 133.1 135.2 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 31 31 50 31 8 7 9 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 12. 11. 6. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 4. -3. -9. -13. -15. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 29. 38. 52. 57. 53. 42. 30. 15. 3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.3 116.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 12.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.9% 75.4% 63.1% 53.2% 45.8% 60.8% 45.3% 11.4% Logistic: 59.6% 77.9% 58.0% 52.6% 40.2% 19.8% 3.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 79.6% 65.0% 74.0% 70.6% 22.4% 20.1% 4.9% 0.0% Consensus: 62.4% 72.8% 65.0% 58.8% 36.1% 33.5% 17.8% 4.7% DTOPS: 43.0% 76.0% 65.0% 51.0% 42.0% 74.0% 34.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##