* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 84 94 103 111 123 124 115 103 86 70 56 41 V (KT) LAND 75 84 94 103 111 123 124 115 103 86 70 56 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 85 92 99 106 116 116 108 96 79 63 49 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 11 13 11 8 2 6 4 8 16 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 0 6 12 11 16 9 SHEAR DIR 12 54 53 45 35 46 343 270 234 248 241 245 255 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 155 156 147 140 140 135 125 125 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 72 70 65 60 54 50 46 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 28 30 31 35 35 35 35 31 27 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 17 21 25 38 51 65 54 49 52 55 28 200 MB DIV 109 134 106 99 138 156 98 74 69 47 -14 -26 -24 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -10 -8 -7 -3 0 6 2 5 4 6 0 LAND (KM) 1529 1583 1646 1710 1760 1841 1935 2035 2066 2137 2207 1967 1713 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.7 124.7 126.6 128.5 130.0 131.8 134.0 136.2 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 30 43 65 12 6 8 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 7. 2. -1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 21. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 28. 36. 48. 49. 40. 28. 11. -5. -19. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.4 117.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.51 8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.79 9.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.0% 70.0% 57.9% 47.7% 44.5% 48.0% 27.7% 10.0% Logistic: 57.1% 72.3% 52.6% 47.8% 40.0% 15.9% 2.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 87.8% 73.6% 83.7% 74.1% 35.8% 16.6% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 68.6% 72.0% 64.8% 56.5% 40.1% 26.9% 10.2% 3.6% DTOPS: 70.0% 85.0% 75.0% 63.0% 57.0% 57.0% 20.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##