* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 101 111 117 126 124 112 96 80 64 48 35 V (KT) LAND 80 90 101 111 117 126 124 112 96 80 64 48 35 V (KT) LGEM 80 90 99 106 111 113 110 100 84 67 53 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 11 7 3 7 6 15 16 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 2 9 9 16 10 9 SHEAR DIR 36 43 45 52 56 44 217 244 264 244 246 254 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.6 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 154 156 151 141 139 134 130 123 122 120 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -50.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 71 69 63 59 54 52 50 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 29 32 34 34 34 35 34 31 29 25 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 20 19 23 34 48 44 41 34 35 20 -1 200 MB DIV 123 133 121 138 163 106 113 73 67 11 -23 -28 -40 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -6 -6 -4 -2 2 6 6 2 9 0 0 LAND (KM) 1591 1636 1687 1745 1807 1886 1965 2005 2037 2138 2137 1900 1663 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 15.4 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.3 121.3 122.6 123.9 125.8 127.4 129.1 130.5 132.3 134.6 136.8 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 36 61 29 7 6 6 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. 0. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 20. 12. 3. -3. -8. -11. -13. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 31. 37. 46. 44. 32. 16. 0. -16. -32. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 11.6 119.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.60 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.89 11.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.4% 69.4% 60.6% 50.0% 45.8% 41.5% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 63.2% 75.3% 60.7% 56.0% 42.9% 21.6% 3.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 85.4% 69.9% 79.9% 77.3% 14.1% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 69.0% 71.5% 67.1% 61.1% 34.3% 22.6% 8.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 70.0% 84.0% 74.0% 61.0% 54.0% 41.0% 11.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##