* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 108 114 120 123 115 103 88 69 52 38 27 V (KT) LAND 90 99 108 114 120 123 115 103 88 69 52 38 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 106 110 112 110 103 91 72 56 43 33 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 11 7 2 7 9 14 18 22 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 3 7 10 11 16 5 4 SHEAR DIR 29 49 39 46 41 240 247 244 234 245 240 257 266 SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 155 151 146 140 139 134 122 122 118 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 66 62 57 56 53 49 47 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 32 32 34 34 32 33 31 26 22 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 17 18 26 36 47 36 41 32 26 6 -10 200 MB DIV 129 120 123 133 100 104 99 72 33 -13 -28 -30 -45 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -8 -6 -6 2 9 6 6 4 13 1 0 LAND (KM) 1662 1727 1780 1827 1879 1959 2034 2066 2133 2214 2005 1749 1432 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.8 123.0 124.1 125.1 126.9 128.6 130.2 132.0 133.9 135.8 138.2 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 50 67 25 11 6 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 6. 4. -2. -8. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 24. 30. 33. 25. 13. -2. -21. -38. -52. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 11.8 120.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.4% 53.9% 39.3% 30.2% 26.6% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 51.8% 65.8% 47.2% 43.3% 40.3% 12.8% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 88.3% 47.8% 71.3% 60.2% 17.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 63.2% 55.8% 52.6% 44.6% 27.9% 13.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 71.0% 73.0% 56.0% 47.0% 37.0% 12.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##