* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 126 129 131 130 120 104 90 72 57 44 31 20 V (KT) LAND 115 126 129 131 130 120 104 90 72 57 44 31 20 V (KT) LGEM 115 124 127 125 120 108 92 76 59 44 33 25 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 7 4 3 9 12 20 19 29 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 1 1 10 9 13 7 3 0 SHEAR DIR 58 50 55 49 32 246 252 242 241 244 258 268 283 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.2 26.0 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 149 143 141 139 134 125 123 118 118 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -50.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 67 64 60 57 54 51 50 48 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 32 33 34 35 33 31 27 24 21 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 20 22 22 38 33 32 24 30 10 -13 -17 200 MB DIV 112 130 124 105 81 94 49 60 2 -13 -21 -28 -31 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -6 -3 3 5 11 3 15 3 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1700 1747 1800 1840 1886 1975 2020 2064 2146 2117 1868 1573 1239 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.7 123.8 124.8 125.8 127.6 129.3 131.0 132.7 134.7 137.0 139.8 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 11 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 46 63 34 9 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -29. -37. -45. -51. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 13. 11. 7. 2. -3. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 14. 16. 15. 5. -11. -25. -43. -58. -71. -84. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.3 121.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.5% 32.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 70.7% 65.6% 55.6% 55.2% 53.2% 13.8% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 77.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 66.0% 33.4% 18.7% 18.5% 17.7% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 36.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##