* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 127 128 128 124 108 93 77 61 46 34 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 127 128 128 124 108 93 77 61 46 34 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 125 123 119 114 100 85 67 51 37 27 20 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 3 4 7 14 17 22 26 31 40 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 2 4 12 6 12 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 52 66 37 50 232 243 246 236 247 252 261 270 287 SST (C) 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.2 25.3 24.8 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 141 139 138 135 132 123 115 117 112 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 64 60 60 56 52 54 51 48 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 32 34 35 32 33 31 28 23 20 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 20 16 21 40 25 27 31 19 -5 -20 -27 200 MB DIV 121 128 92 72 73 72 46 41 1 -22 -31 -37 -33 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -5 -1 8 12 15 9 21 5 1 -8 LAND (KM) 1734 1776 1824 1863 1907 1992 2036 2084 2191 1953 1688 1373 1010 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.1 16.1 17.4 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.8 124.8 125.8 126.7 128.6 130.2 131.9 134.0 136.2 138.7 141.7 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 61 22 8 5 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -24. -34. -44. -52. -58. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -19. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 8. 4. -12. -27. -43. -59. -74. -86. -99.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.7 122.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 62.8% 54.8% 49.9% 47.6% 40.8% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 47.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.0% 18.3% 16.6% 15.9% 13.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##