* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 137 136 131 125 105 86 69 53 38 27 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 135 137 136 131 125 105 86 69 53 38 27 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 135 135 130 122 114 95 77 60 44 32 24 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 3 6 12 17 23 24 32 33 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 4 8 8 13 8 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 66 41 34 232 242 241 235 231 237 258 264 274 285 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 25.9 25.7 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 139 138 133 122 121 115 114 117 118 120 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 61 61 57 51 51 50 47 44 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 35 35 35 33 30 29 26 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 15 19 26 27 18 23 19 2 -4 -18 -29 200 MB DIV 141 115 89 55 75 58 63 -2 -13 -27 -20 -24 -36 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -1 2 12 16 9 13 9 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1798 1843 1894 1930 1970 2020 2060 2143 2047 1782 1500 1187 842 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.7 17.0 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.0 126.0 126.9 127.7 129.6 131.3 133.1 135.3 137.8 140.5 143.5 146.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 10 11 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 8 6 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -23. -35. -48. -59. -68. -77. -82. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -21. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -4. -10. -30. -49. -66. -82. -97.-108.-119.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.0 124.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.1% 14.7% 11.9% 9.4% 5.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 4.9% 4.0% 3.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##