* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 130 125 117 99 78 60 43 31 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 135 135 130 125 117 99 78 60 43 31 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 135 131 125 115 106 88 67 49 35 26 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 6 8 15 21 26 31 33 34 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 7 14 9 13 3 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 47 22 206 192 224 242 228 234 242 250 257 276 282 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.1 25.2 24.9 25.2 25.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 136 133 129 123 115 116 113 117 118 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 60 56 53 55 49 48 44 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 32 35 34 34 30 27 22 19 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 23 30 34 18 19 25 9 -5 -15 -29 -23 200 MB DIV 115 110 70 91 86 66 40 6 -9 -16 -26 -25 -38 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 6 10 14 21 13 18 9 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1855 1894 1939 1968 1983 2030 2105 2157 1908 1625 1312 978 641 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.5 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.3 19.1 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.1 127.0 127.9 128.7 130.5 132.3 134.3 136.6 139.3 142.3 145.5 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -37. -50. -61. -70. -78. -84. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -14. -19. -24. -27. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -5. -10. -18. -36. -57. -75. -92.-104.-114.-125.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.3 125.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 6.6% 5.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##