* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 114 107 101 81 64 49 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 118 114 107 101 81 64 49 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 117 109 102 93 73 55 41 30 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 6 12 16 23 23 33 32 33 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 4 4 11 10 14 9 5 2 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 216 188 226 231 240 232 234 253 251 263 283 284 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.8 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.1 25.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 134 132 116 118 118 118 122 116 125 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 61 62 60 59 54 53 51 48 44 42 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 35 34 35 30 27 24 20 17 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 39 39 28 25 22 16 2 -9 -14 -21 1 200 MB DIV 115 89 117 93 60 73 9 3 -19 -13 -22 -30 -31 700-850 TADV -6 0 6 12 13 15 14 21 8 4 -3 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1910 1955 1998 2014 2035 2092 2182 2039 1783 1490 1156 794 418 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.2 128.1 129.0 129.8 131.6 133.4 135.4 137.8 140.6 143.8 147.3 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -33. -44. -53. -61. -68. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -1. 0. -4. -7. -13. -20. -25. -30. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -18. -24. -44. -61. -76. -89.-100.-109.-116.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.7 126.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 571.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##