* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 113 106 99 91 71 55 42 30 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 113 106 99 91 71 55 42 30 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 111 103 93 83 63 48 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 12 15 18 25 30 30 31 30 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 4 4 7 14 8 11 10 6 6 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 146 213 220 225 234 235 240 249 253 266 276 288 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.5 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 132 127 118 116 120 120 117 120 127 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 60 57 55 54 46 42 38 36 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 34 34 33 28 25 22 18 14 11 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 38 41 31 28 30 21 14 0 -7 -12 -16 1 200 MB DIV 107 139 104 61 56 28 -4 -17 -21 -28 -30 -36 -18 700-850 TADV 2 7 14 13 16 18 24 22 4 5 -8 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1954 1992 2015 2027 2045 2118 2179 1922 1607 1292 989 678 366 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.4 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.0 128.8 129.7 130.5 132.3 134.1 136.5 139.5 142.5 145.4 148.4 151.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -31. -41. -49. -56. -63. -67. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -8. -13. -21. -27. -31. -33. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -29. -49. -65. -78. -90.-100.-108.-113.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.1 127.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##