* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 100 92 81 65 48 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 107 100 92 81 65 48 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 105 95 85 75 58 44 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 9 15 16 18 24 32 30 34 26 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 4 10 11 15 9 5 7 8 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 171 163 222 228 233 231 229 245 243 248 270 292 308 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.5 25.5 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 131 128 118 119 116 119 121 116 123 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 57 57 56 51 45 43 39 34 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 34 30 29 25 20 17 13 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 36 27 27 22 18 7 -5 -10 -25 -8 0 200 MB DIV 137 144 93 40 31 -4 1 -8 -6 -11 -38 -43 -5 700-850 TADV 8 10 12 11 11 12 21 3 4 -1 -8 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1991 1999 2012 2029 2051 2123 2068 1795 1533 1218 862 520 240 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.8 129.5 130.3 131.1 132.8 135.1 137.7 140.2 143.2 146.6 149.9 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -29. -38. -46. -53. -58. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -18. -24. -30. -34. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -34. -50. -67. -83. -93.-103.-110.-112.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 128.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##